LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$29.80
Said $2.98· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you'll easily be able to see kind of the high twos so that uh 100 and 200 day moving average right here could potentially be touched”@ 6:47 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishShorts increased 8.4 million shares yet Lucid is still up 5.14%, demonstrating the power of algorithmic trading support after the stock crossed above the super trend indicator. The speaker argues tomorrow's PCE will be the deciding factor — if favorable, shorts will be forced to return and Lucid will push to its 100/200-day moving averages in the high $2.50s-$2.98. GDP came in at 3.1% vs 2.8% forecast, a strong macro tailwind.
Key arguments
- Lucid up despite 8.4M short increase — algorithmic trading overriding the short pressure
- GDP at 3.1% vs 2.8% forecast — strong economic backdrop
- If tomorrow's PCE is benign, shorts will need to return, adding buying pressure for Lucid
- Saudi Arabia showcase of Lucid at police day — minor marketing positive
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If PCE is hot tomorrow, could see a pullback back to 50-day moving average
- 8.4M short increase in one day is a historically aggressive attack on the stock
- Broker paying people to short Lucid (negative cost of borrow) is a bearish signal about short sentiment
The call
- Date said
- Dec 19, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 20, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $26.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- +14.8%
- Notes
- Target ≥$29.8 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +14.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$29.8 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +14.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.