TSLABullhit
The Intelligent InvestorTarget Price
$183
“if we add all these numbers here Tesla's interest rate should be around 183 dollars per share”@ 12:36 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla stock has crashed 70% from its peak primarily due to Elon Musk's Twitter distraction and expected lower demand from macro headwinds. However, Tesla's fundamentals, management, competitive advantage, and long-term growth prospects remain intact, and the stock should recover when the Fed starts lowering rates in 2024.
Key arguments
- Tesla's fundamentals and competitive advantages haven't changed despite the stock crash
- Expected to deliver 1.34M vehicles in 2022 (43% growth) and 1.96M in 2023 (46% growth)
- EPS expected to grow 35% in 2023 and 23% in 2024 despite macro headwinds
- US EV tax credits starting January 2023 will benefit Tesla deliveries
- Demand should recover when Fed starts lowering rates in 2024
- Long-term goal to produce 20M vehicles annually by 2030 with 10-12 gigafactories
- Aiming for 1000 gigawatt hours battery production capacity in US
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Elon Musk distracted by Twitter operations and may sell more Tesla shares
- Expected recession and macro headwinds affecting EV demand in 2023-2024
- High inflation and interest rates reducing consumer demand
- Increasing competition in US, Europe, and China markets
- Tesla offering discounts suggesting softened demand
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Video presents both bear and bull cases for Tesla recovery
- Analysis acknowledges this is educational content explaining concerns rather than making a definitive call
- Discusses worst-case scenarios (Twitter bankruptcy) without predicting they will occur
- Notes uncertainty about future CEO decisions and Twitter profitability timeline
- Mentions 'will it recover' as a question to be explored rather than a prediction
The call
- Date said
- Dec 27, 2022
- Price at prediction
- $109.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $188.27
- Return
- +72.6%
- Notes
- Target ≥$183 reached on 2023-02-02. Price: $188.27. Return: +72.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$183 reached on 2023-02-02. Price: $188.27. Return: +72.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Based on detailed DCF analysis with multiple scenarios, but acknowledges uncertainty with disclaimers