LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“Ideally, around 35 to 40,000. That would be best case scenario in my opinion given the circumstances and demand and so forth and then that way the shorts can just f off and that'll be a natural deterrent.”
Thesis at the time
MixedShort interest is inches from all-time highs at 33.47% (vs record 33.68%) and the stock is near all-time lows simultaneously, which the host says is not a coincidence. Positive news — the Air sedan and Gravity SUV named to Car and Driver's 10 Best for 2026 — is dismissed as fluff since Lucid has a 'full shelf of awards.' The only thing that matters is 2025 production targets AND strong 2026 guidance; ideally 35-40k units, otherwise the market will remain skeptical.
Key arguments
- Short interest at 33.47% — inches from all-time high of 33.68% (both records set in December)
- Stock near all-time lows while at near all-time high short interest: not a coincidence
- Car and Driver 10 Best 2026 award: positive but insufficient as a catalyst
- 2026 guidance must be strong (ideally 35-40k units) to deter shorts
- AMP1 max capacity is 90k; AMP2 will bring it to 150k — guidance should reflect this
- Morgan Stanley sell rating with $10 price target (Dec 8) is a headwind
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If 2025 targets are hit, short interest could normalize
- Certified pre-owned program and Car and Driver award show product quality remains strong
The call
- Date said
- Dec 16, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $11.52
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.