LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“the Bulls are kind of calling and they are seeing $3 and even four looks like March so q1 for it to be above 350”@ 6:52 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid rose 2.97% largely on algorithmic trading following Gagan Dhingra's NASDAQ investor conference fireside chat, where he hinted at European partnerships (likely a German OEM), solid-state battery development, and additional licensing deals. CPI came in line with expectations, solidifying a December rate cut at 98.6% probability, which should benefit the rate-sensitive EV sector. Near-term consensus is $3 with medium-term $3.50 by Q1.
Key arguments
- CFO hinted at European partnership (likely German OEM) for servicing vehicles similar to Polestar-Volkswagen model
- Gagan alluded to solid-state battery progress and other partnership discussions without disclosing details
- CPI came in line, cementing 98.6% probability of 25bps December rate cut — bullish for EV sector
- Bulls calling $2.50 as the floor with $3 consensus and $3.50-$4 for Q1 2025
- Options premium growing from $1.2M to $2.7M showing increasing conviction
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increased 1.32 million shares today despite green market — very abnormal
- Lucid is at 15-18% short interest range target only if a major partnership is announced in first half of 2025
The call
- Date said
- Dec 12, 2024
- Deadline
- Mar 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- +24.3%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +24.3%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +24.3%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.