TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$11,000
“You know my price target of 11,000 by 2030 pending these things to actually happening.”@ 7:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is at the precipice of unlocking global autonomous transport via robotaxi and civilization-level robotics via Optimus, justifying an $11,000 per share target by 2030 even with near-term tariff turbulence and China tail risk.
Key arguments
- Tesla can bring robotaxi cost per mile below $1 (projected 90 cents), disrupting all transport modes including public transport
- Austin robotaxi launch is on schedule per multiple indicators
- Optimus will come online end of 2025, be proven in Tesla manufacturing in 2026, see early commercial traction in 2027, and revolutionary deployment 2028-2030
- MAGA + mega (European political revolution) + Optimus equals turnaround of Western civilization with Tesla at centerpiece
- Optimus creates unlimited cheap specialized labor, removing the economic barrier for Europe and eliminating mass immigration rationale
- Current selloff is strategic buying opportunity - whether you enter at 220 or 280 doesn't matter if stock hits 11000
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- China-Taiwan war tail risk could tank tech stocks and destroy LEAP call options
- Elon's political activism created brand damage in Wisconsin loss and required image repair
- If kinetic war with China happens, Tesla loses Shanghai factory
The call
- Date said
- Apr 8, 2025
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $221.86
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$10,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Repeatedly asserted with conviction, backed by DCF models and a clear catalyst framework (robotaxi + Optimus). Still conditional on execution.