TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,020
“I think 2026, I'm predicting $1,020, roughly, is the fair value of the stock.”@ 8:13 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is positioned for explosive growth driven by robotaxi deployment and Optimus robot scaling, with earnings per share projected to grow from $2.10 to $144 by 2030. The YouTuber believes these new business lines will create massive margin expansion through service-based revenue models.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi and Optimus represent enormous new markets with much higher margins than core auto business
- Cybercab production starting Q1/Q2 2025 will drive 40,000 robotaxis in 2025
- Optimus scaling from 25,000 units in 2026 to 200,000 in 2028
- Service-based revenue models for both robotaxi and Optimus will boost margins significantly
- EPS growth projected at 69% in 2026, nearly 100% in 2027, and 109% in 2028
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Acknowledges investments are risky and Tesla is risky
- Notes robotaxi timeline might face delays
- Emphasizes projections are not guaranteed and not investment advice
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'no one can guarantee that' regarding future value
- Disclaimer: 'whatever we discuss in this video is not investment advice, and it's not a firm prediction'
- Creator characterizes Optimus projections as 'very conservative estimates, not a base model' and 'more a bear or a conservative model'
- Robotaxi projections acknowledged as 'maybe slightly on the bullish side'
- Acknowledges uncertainty: 'You might think that's too many. You might think that's too little'
- Notes potential delays: 'I think it's going to be a steep lift to get to 40,000. Maybe get delayed a little bit'
- Model-dependent: projections rely on specific assumptions about Optimus and robotaxi adoption that may not materialize
The call
- Date said
- Dec 5, 2025
- Timeframe
- 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $455
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$641.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Uses hedge word 'roughly' and acknowledges market could go 'far above that number', but shows detailed financial modeling