The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Quoted text as recorded“I do feel they will be cutting this upcoming earnings their targets from 20,000 to realistically I can see it being around 12 in my opinion.”
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jun 28, 2025
- Extracted deadline
- Aug 5, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored
- Notes
- There is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
Email me when LCID calls resolve
When a tracked LCID call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
With Q2 concluding imminently, the speaker frames 4,000+ as bullish and 3,500 or below as bearish for Q2 production. He estimates ~3,300 as realistic based on current data, and warns that if true, Lucid will likely cut full-year guidance from 20,000 to approximately 12,000 at August 5th earnings — an outcome the market will take very negatively.
Key arguments
- 4,000+ Q2 production = bullish market reaction; below 3,500 = bearish
- Speaker estimates Q2 production ~3,300 based on available sales/flyover data
- April US sales 820, May US sales 975 (all Air, zero Gravity), June unknown
- Q4 historically very strong for Lucid production — magical Q4 ramp pattern
- Delivered will likely exceed produced due to massive Q2 promotions
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If guidance cut to 12K, market will react very negatively
- 20K target already priced in — any miss would hurt stock significantly
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jun 28, 2025, 2:47 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- missing_target
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
missing target
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Reference price
Before21.2
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNot recorded
AfterThere is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterMissing target
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- Not recorded
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Aug 5, 2025
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
There is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.