LCIDBearunverifiable
Lucid City“I do feel they will be cutting this upcoming earnings their targets from 20,000 to realistically I can see it being around 12 in my opinion.”
Thesis at the time
MixedWith Q2 concluding imminently, the speaker frames 4,000+ as bullish and 3,500 or below as bearish for Q2 production. He estimates ~3,300 as realistic based on current data, and warns that if true, Lucid will likely cut full-year guidance from 20,000 to approximately 12,000 at August 5th earnings — an outcome the market will take very negatively.
Key arguments
- 4,000+ Q2 production = bullish market reaction; below 3,500 = bearish
- Speaker estimates Q2 production ~3,300 based on available sales/flyover data
- April US sales 820, May US sales 975 (all Air, zero Gravity), June unknown
- Q4 historically very strong for Lucid production — magical Q4 ramp pattern
- Delivered will likely exceed produced due to massive Q2 promotions
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If guidance cut to 12K, market will react very negatively
- 20K target already priced in — any miss would hurt stock significantly
The call
- Date said
- Jun 28, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 5, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.