TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$480
“the reason I'm saying 480 by end of June is not that I can guarantee it's 480 but I can guarantee you if it's not 480 the growth of Tesla and Roboaxi will force it.”@ 19:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishRobotaxi launch in June is a structurally positive catalyst that Wall Street has not priced in; EBITDA from robotaxi alone could double company profit by 2027 under fast scenarios, and FSD is a solvable type-three reality engineering problem rather than a fundamental invention problem.
Key arguments
- Long-term price target of $11,000 by 2030 assuming continued trajectory in robotaxi and Optimus.
- Robotaxi could contribute $30B EBITDA by 2027 in the fast scenario and 20-30% more than 2024's total EBITDA in the slow scenario.
- FSD is a type-three (reality engineering) problem, not a type-two invention problem, so Elon can solve it using existing AI components.
- Scenarios: hiccup, flat, slow, fast rollouts drive different short-term stock paths but long-term forcing function remains intact.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Hiccup scenario at launch could trigger a 20% selloff.
- Critics argue Tesla has failed at FSD and lacks lidar, so robotaxi will not work.
- LEAPS can lose 50-70% premium from time decay even if the long-term thesis is correct.
The call
- Date said
- May 21, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of June
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $334.62
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $317.66
- Return
- -5.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $480. Price: $317.66.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $480. Price: $317.66.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Scenario-based target tied to fast robotaxi trajectory post-launch.