The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price
$7.28
Quoted text as recorded“I calculated a fair value for this stock at $7.28 and the current market price at 13.45 is still well above the intrinsic value per share.”@ 7:14 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Nov 30, 2025
- Latest provider quote
- $2.98As of Nov 5, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. May be delayed; does not resolve this call.
- Interpreted confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
Tracking the outcome
- Status
- pending
- Notes
- No stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
LCID is down 35% in the last month and 55% YTD, and the recent $875M convertible senior note offering adds to dilution risk. Q3 losses of $828M against fewer than 30,000 annual vehicle sales, with lower-priced models at least a year away. Speaker's DCF fair value is $7.28 versus market at $13.45, and the stock is only interesting below $7.
Key arguments
- Down 35% in one month and 55% YTD in 2025
- $875M convertible senior note offering will dilute shareholders
- Q3 2025 losses of $828M against <30,000 annual vehicle sales
- Lower-priced models at least a year away
- Expiration of US EV tax credits pressures demand
- DCF fair value $7.28 vs current market price $13.45
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Cars are beautiful and best EVs on the road
- Gravity SUV ramp could limit losses if widespread adoption
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Nov 30, 2025, 12:45 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 3:09 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- awaiting_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Reference price
Before12.58
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNot recorded
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Why we interpreted the confidence this way
Speaker is a CFA with a long track record on this stock and an explicit DCF-derived fair value that he owns, with a clear action threshold ($7) for buying.