Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$34.20
Said $3.42· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“most likely touching that 342 this week and then dependent on companies unveiling the earnings maybe news specific to Lucid this is where you could see maybe it above that”@ 6:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Bullish79,000 ITM options (at the $2.50-$3.00 strikes) require market makers to cover approximately 7.9 million shares on Tuesday's market open, providing a mechanical upside catalyst. The speaker also notes abnormal after-hours buying on Friday as likely additional market maker coverage. A pre-earnings FOMO run to ~$3.42 is anticipated, with potentially higher if guidance is strong. The key Trump executive orders at inauguration could create EV-related volatility. Short interest at 18.99% with room to double-down if data turns negative.
Key arguments
- 79K ITM options at $2.50-$3.00 strikes require ~7.9M shares of market maker coverage on Tuesday — mechanical pop
- Abnormal after-hours buying Friday likely from market makers pre-covering those options
- Shorter week (MLK Monday off) compresses volatility into fewer trading days
- Pre-earnings FOMO run historically drives LCID to a local peak before the actual print
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Trump executive orders at inauguration could create negative EV sector volatility
- Removal of $7,500 EV credit rumored to be among first executive orders
The call
- Date said
- Jan 19, 2025
- Deadline
- Jan 24, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $27.90
- Return
- -2.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $34.2. Price: $27.90.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $34.2. Price: $27.90.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.