The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“Bears though they're anticipating for it to be sub 250 and you have a lot of pockets even for March for it to be like sub 50 cents”@ 6:24 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jan 28, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The Tesla Supercharger access announcement for Gravity (Jan 31) and Air (Q2 2025) is seen as regurgitated PR rather than substantive news, since it avoids mentioning Gravity production status — the key metric investors want. Institutional ownership grew 34.2% Q/Q, contrasting with retail declining 35.7% — a bullish divergence signal. Shorts cyclically returned 50M shares in December (helping the rally) then re-added 53M in January (capping it), revealing deliberate manipulation rather than fundamental concern.
Key arguments
- Institutional ownership up 34.2% Q/Q vs retail down 35.7% — institutions accumulating while retail panics
- Shorts returned 50M shares in December, re-added 53M in January — cycling their positions strategically
- Tesla Supercharger access for Air in Q2 2025 is genuinely new and positive for consumer adoption
- Gravity production flyovers show no meaningful ramp — PR newsflow is masking this gap
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No production ramp visible in flyovers — market correctly frustrated
- If 50-day MA breaks, algorithmic trading would accelerate the selloff significantly
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jan 28, 2025, 4:11 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before18.59
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before27.7
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-02-26
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$25 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +18.6%.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before22.55
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterexpired
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.