LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“Bears though they're anticipating for it to be sub 250 and you have a lot of pockets even for March for it to be like sub 50 cents”@ 6:24 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe Tesla Supercharger access announcement for Gravity (Jan 31) and Air (Q2 2025) is seen as regurgitated PR rather than substantive news, since it avoids mentioning Gravity production status — the key metric investors want. Institutional ownership grew 34.2% Q/Q, contrasting with retail declining 35.7% — a bullish divergence signal. Shorts cyclically returned 50M shares in December (helping the rally) then re-added 53M in January (capping it), revealing deliberate manipulation rather than fundamental concern.
Key arguments
- Institutional ownership up 34.2% Q/Q vs retail down 35.7% — institutions accumulating while retail panics
- Shorts returned 50M shares in December, re-added 53M in January — cycling their positions strategically
- Tesla Supercharger access for Air in Q2 2025 is genuinely new and positive for consumer adoption
- Gravity production flyovers show no meaningful ramp — PR newsflow is masking this gap
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No production ramp visible in flyovers — market correctly frustrated
- If 50-day MA breaks, algorithmic trading would accelerate the selloff significantly
The call
- Date said
- Jan 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.70
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22.55
- Return
- +18.6%
- Notes
- Target ≤$25 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +18.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$25 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +18.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.