The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price
$16
Quoted text as recorded“So, that would put it roughly around that 17 to $16 range for the most part.”@ 11:25 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Oct 24, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid is struggling as Tesla earnings weigh on the EV sector and shorts return 3M shares while institutions sell. Management has failed to define a target audience and the reverse stock split was a mistake. The speaker sees more downside ahead given the 50-day moving average breakdown and lack of catalysts.
Key arguments
- Tesla earnings suppressed Lucid significantly; institutions were selling heavily on secondary market
- Shorts returned 2.9M shares and represent ~37.2M total short shares (29.33% of float)
- Lucid broke below 50-day moving average, historically signaling 20-30% further pullback
- Management has no idea who their target audience is and wasted money on influencer marketing
- The reverse stock split failed to attract institutional buyers as intended
- Retail investor questions at upcoming earnings are low quality, signaling poor shareholder base
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Neuro co-founder picked up a Gravity, confirming the Lucid-Neuro-Uber robotaxi partnership is progressing
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Oct 24, 2025, 9:45 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 25, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-18.1
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 5 shown
Oct 25, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Evaluation kind
BeforeNot recorded
Aftertouch
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.5
After2026-10-18.1
- Recorded outcome date
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-25
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome reason
BeforeAwaiting stated deadline
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforepending
Afterexpired
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before17.91
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before18.48
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-11-13
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$16 reached on 2025-11-13. Price: $15.17. Return: +17.9%.
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome price
Before15.17
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterpending
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 6 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $16
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 25, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.