LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$28.60
Said $2.86· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“it does have a pivot point of $335 cents so for as long as it is below that then this is where it is anticipated to get between that kind of 286 and 250 range”@ 2:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid broke below the 50-day MA on high short volume and the Elliott Wave analysis targets $2.50-$2.86 if the stock stays below $3.35. The speaker believes Lucid will continue to trend down until the Gravity is officially unveiled because too many unknowns remain (true price, production capacity, demand). The Michigan office opening is bullish for OEM partnerships but the market won't price that in until there's an announcement.
Key arguments
- Stock broke below 50-day MA - typically results in 10-15% further pullback historically
- Elliott Wave: if below $3.35, targets $2.50-$2.86 range
- Shorts at 873K increase today, cost to borrow at 7.04%
- Market viewing Lucid primarily as cash-burning company without near-term catalyst
- Gravity is the next catalyst - too many question marks on pricing/capacity/demand
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Michigan office opening could signal OEM licensing deals coming
- Stock oversold at stochastic 32, potential for bounce on any good news
The call
- Date said
- Sep 20, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $34.90
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $26.90
- Return
- +22.9%
- Notes
- Target ≤$28.6 reached on 2024-10-17. Price: $26.90. Return: +22.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$28.6 reached on 2024-10-17. Price: $26.90. Return: +22.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.