TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$435
“we're aiming at 435 or something most likely to end up the week.”@ 8:39 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is expected to rally this week on bullish technical and macro setups while the long-term 2030 target above $11,000 provides a roughly 90% annualized cheat sheet that makes leveraged uptrend trading highly rewarding.
Key arguments
- Long-term target above $11,000 by 2030 driven by robotaxi, humanoid robots, and AI monetization.
- This week has medium-to-high conviction bullish setup aiming around $435 close.
- Capturing just a few 4x leveraged uptrends in 2025 can 5x returns over a pure buy-and-hold.
- Reality Engineers group combines technical, macro, fundamental, and geopolitical inputs.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Leveraged positions on downturns can destroy returns, so conviction must be high.
The call
- Date said
- Jan 6, 2025
- Timeframe
- this week
- Deadline
- Jan 10, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $411.05
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $394.74
- Return
- -4.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $435. Price: $394.74.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $435. Price: $394.74.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Framed as most likely weekly close with medium-to-high conviction.