LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“I see this as potentially something coming very soon uh maybe tail into 2024 or sometime during 2025 for more money coming in through licensing”@ 4:23 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishRecent reporting confirms Lucid VP stated the company is in licensing talks with 'many automakers' - a shift from earlier production partnership speculation to a cleaner licensing model. The Michigan office opening near major OEM HQs (Ford, GM, etc.) and hiring 262 engineers signals active deal-making. The speaker's biggest takeaway from the Tech/Manufacturing Day was that no major OEMs had yet lined up for licensing - now that appears to be changing. The speaker sees this as a potential major 2024/2025 catalyst.
Key arguments
- VP confirmed licensing talks with 'many automakers' - cleaner revenue model than production partnerships
- Michigan office opening near major OEM headquarters with 262 skilled engineering hires
- Hyundai CEO reportedly visited Lucid HQ this year, fueling partnership speculation
- Tech/Manufacturing Day success likely attracted multiple OEM interest
- Licensing = 'free money' - capital-light revenue stream to supplement vehicle sales
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increased 3.45M on Friday despite positive news - they may know something
- Licensing deal could still be tail-end 2024 or 2025, not immediate
The call
- Date said
- Sep 21, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $34.90
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.