The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Quoted text as recorded“I do agree that Lucid is going to really kick ass in second half of 2025 and also 2026”@ 7:16 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jun 19, 2025
- Extracted deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored
- Notes
- There is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
Email me when LCID calls resolve
When a tracked LCID call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Gross profit margins are deteriorating as cost of revenue rises faster than revenue, and shares outstanding has grown from 2.31B to 3.05B in five quarters due to ongoing dilution. The speaker expects ~$7 billion more in dilution before the midsize launch, possibly continuing until 2027–2028, but remains bullish on Lucid's second half of 2025 and 2026 performance.
Key arguments
- Gross profit margins are worsening, partly due to tariff impacts on Canada/Mexico supply chain
- Shares outstanding will continue rising to fund operations until midsize ramp-up
- Speaker estimates ~$7B more dilution needed before midsize launch
- Q2 2025 earnings will be key given tariff headwinds on margins
- Lucid is improving quarter-over-quarter, just slowly
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla had similarly poor margins early on and took until 2018–2019 to improve
- Lucid did localize supply agreements in Q4 which contributed to some margin improvement
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jun 19, 2025, 9:07 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- missing_target
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
missing target
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Reference price
Before21.9
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNot recorded
AfterThere is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterMissing target
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- Not recorded
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Dec 31, 2026
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
There is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.