TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“It's going to happen this year and that will be the most bullish indicator that the audit will actually then change and be very good. And I expect this to happen November or December the whole Nitsa news.”
Thesis at the time
MixedJoe argues today's Tesla rally was mostly a market-wide relief rally (driven by no Iran strike, a bounce in oil, crypto, and semis) rather than Tesla-specific strength, since Tesla underperformed its historical beta relative to the NASDAQ move. He remains structurally very bullish long-term, but says the stock cannot make a real run to new highs until Cybercab production scales and NHTSA regulatory hurdles are resolved.
Key arguments
- Tesla is up only 3% versus a 2.26% NASDAQ move; given Tesla's beta of ~2 it should have been up 4.5%, so relative performance is weak.
- The rally is being driven by a broad market relief rally (Iran de-escalation, oil down, crypto up), not Tesla-specific strength.
- Cybercab scaling is the single biggest driver of the stock; the Cybercab tracker currently shows no meaningful scaling progress.
- A pending NHTSA rule change on brake pedals, if adopted before the ongoing Cybercab audit concludes, would be a major bullish catalyst allowing robotaxi scaling.
- FSD version 15 rollout in Cybercabs is central to unlocking scale, and is already 'month two' of refinement.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla will very likely fail the current NHTSA Cybercab audit as the rule is written today.
- The Cybercab tracker shows scaling is currently stalled, which caps near-term upside.
- A pullback to the 360 area short-term would not be surprising after such a strong market-wide rally.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analyst acknowledges not being 'incredibly bullish' on Tesla despite the day's gains
- Emphasizes that Tesla's outperformance is relative to market conditions, not fundamental strength
- Warns that if the market shows weakness, Tesla would show 'even more weakness'
- Notes Tesla is still down 17% year-to-date
- Acknowledges the rally is driven by geopolitical relief (Iran tensions) rather than company-specific catalysts
The call
- Date said
- Sep 21, 2026
- Timeframe
- November or December this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
He states this as 'the most likely outcome' and gives a specific window, but it is still a forecast about a regulatory process outside his control.
Source
Is Tesla Stock BACK ON TRACK?
Said on Sep 21, 2026Open on YouTube ↗