Is Tesla Stock BACK ON TRACK?
Overall Thesis
Tesla's recent 3% rally is not fundamentally driven but rather a market-wide relief rally that masks underlying weakness; the stock is underperforming relative to its beta and faces downside risk if broader market sentiment weakens.
Narratives
Nvidia is mentioned as part of the broad semiconductor rally and described enthusiastically as 'so freaking hot,' but no specific thesis or price target is given.
Key Arguments
- Nvidia rose roughly 2.3% amid a broader semiconductor rally.
Joe calls Micron 'completely undervalued' amid a broader semiconductor rally, though he does not give a specific price target or timeframe.
Key Arguments
- Micron is described as still completely undervalued despite a strong recent run.
Predictions (1)
Ethereum's move from 1,700 to 2,700 is cited only as evidence of a broader crypto rally supporting the day's risk-on market move.
Key Arguments
- Ethereum rallied from about 1,700 to 2,700 alongside Bitcoin.
Amazon is mentioned only in passing as one of the Magnificent Seven names doing well that day, without a distinct thesis.
Key Arguments
- Amazon is grouped with other Mag 7 names performing well on the day.
Oil's drop is cited only as a factor behind the day's broader relief rally after Trump did not strike Iran, with no forward-looking thesis on oil or USO itself.
Key Arguments
- Oil fell about 5% on Iran de-escalation news, contributing to the market's relief rally.
Joe argues today's Tesla rally was mostly a market-wide relief rally (driven by no Iran strike, a bounce in oil, crypto, and semis) rather than Tesla-specific strength, since Tesla underperformed its historical beta relative to the NASDAQ move. He remains structurally very bullish long-term, but says the stock cannot make a real run to new highs until Cybercab production scales and NHTSA regulatory hurdles are resolved.
Key Arguments
- Tesla is up only 3% versus a 2.26% NASDAQ move; given Tesla's beta of ~2 it should have been up 4.5%, so relative performance is weak.
- The rally is being driven by a broad market relief rally (Iran de-escalation, oil down, crypto up), not Tesla-specific strength.
- Cybercab scaling is the single biggest driver of the stock; the Cybercab tracker currently shows no meaningful scaling progress.
- A pending NHTSA rule change on brake pedals, if adopted before the ongoing Cybercab audit concludes, would be a major bullish catalyst allowing robotaxi scaling.
- FSD version 15 rollout in Cybercabs is central to unlocking scale, and is already 'month two' of refinement.
Joe holds a small Meta position and believes it is the most undervalued of the Magnificent Seven, crediting Alex Wang's leadership of Meta's AI efforts for a turnaround he says is now visibly playing out.
Key Arguments
- Meta is described as the most undervalued of the Mag 7.
- Alex Wang's leadership at Meta AI is credited with turning the company around, evidenced by a 10% single-day rally.
Predictions (1)
AMD is highlighted as the standout performer in a strong day for semiconductors, though no forward-looking price thesis is offered.
Key Arguments
- AMD was up about 10% on the day, called out as exceptionally strong.
Bitcoin's recovery to around 87,000 is mentioned as part of the broader risk-on rally, with a bullish view on Bitcoin coming from a viewer comment that Joe does not clearly endorse as his own conviction.
Key Arguments
- Bitcoin recovered strongly to ~87,000 from ~60,000 recently, contributing to the day's broader risk-on rally.
Hedges & Caveats
- Analyst acknowledges not being 'incredibly bullish' on Tesla despite the day's gains
- Emphasizes that Tesla's outperformance is relative to market conditions, not fundamental strength
- Warns that if the market shows weakness, Tesla would show 'even more weakness'
- Notes Tesla is still down 17% year-to-date
- Acknowledges the rally is driven by geopolitical relief (Iran tensions) rather than company-specific catalysts