The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“it's either going to be high ones or possibly 250 or in excess of 250 so anything is possible”@ 6:03 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Nov 4, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
PIF bought 374M shares plus 21.4M additional to maintain their 58.8% stake, which is algorithmically positive and driving a 3% gain. However, big money is selling ($1.45M and $500K transactions), shorts are increasing 3.76M shares, and CEO Peter Rawlinson has never purchased Lucid shares with his own money — a major red flag per the speaker.
Key arguments
- PIF bought 374M + 21.4M additional shares to maintain 58.8% ownership — signaling commitment
- Algorithmic trading driving price up despite big money selling
- Shorts increasing 3.76M shares — calling the rally unjustified
- CEO Peter Rawlinson has never purchased shares with personal funds — massive red flag
- Options consensus showing $3.50+ bull case for earnings week
- Elliott Wave projecting high $1 range OR $2.50+ post-earnings — binary outcome
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- PIF using personal funds (not company money) to maintain ownership is genuinely bullish signal
- Implied earnings move of 15.73% creates significant upside potential
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Nov 4, 2024, 4:49 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before13.84
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before22.4
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-12-09
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≥$25 reached on 2024-12-09. Price: $25.50. Return: +13.8%.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before25.5
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterexpired
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.