LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$11.44
“if it's able to get above that 11:01 and kind of stay there, then this is where you could see in theory over the next couple trading days a nice swing opportunity to this 200 day moving average and that's sitting at roughly 1144.”@ 6:52 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
NeutralOn the first trading day of 2026, Lucid is up 3.69% while Tesla (dethroned by BYD for the second year) and Rivian both disappoint on Q4 numbers. The speaker attributes Lucid's resilience partly to bouncing off a key support level and broader tech/AI optimism. However, the 100-day MA at $11.01 is proving difficult to break, and the speaker warns against social media hype targeting $17–18 as premature. Q4 production numbers expected Monday or Tuesday are the key near-term catalyst.
Key arguments
- Lucid up 3.69% while Tesla and Rivian both in red on their Q4 miss — sector divergence
- Tesla dethroned by BYD for second consecutive year
- Lucid struggling with 100-day MA at $11.01 — needs to clear it for a run to $11.44 (200-day)
- Short interest at 35.69%, increasing 162K shares — shorts doubling down into Q4 numbers
- 50-day MA at $14.09 is the big resistance barrier — bullish only above that
- Rumors of Lucid/Rivian partnership circulating but speculative
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid bounced off key support — a technically constructive signal
- CES AI/tech rally providing positive tailwind to speculative growth names
The call
- Date said
- Jan 2, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.15
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $11.69
- Return
- +4.8%
- Notes
- Target ≥$11.44 reached on 2026-01-05. Price: $11.69. Return: +4.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$11.44 reached on 2026-01-05. Price: $11.69. Return: +4.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.