TSLABullexpired
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$680
“Whereas I believe it's worth something like 680 right now.”@ 1:41 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla DCF-based fair value is roughly 680 today and 850 by December 2025, far above Wall Street targets which are anchored by career-incentive ranges rather than first principles.
Key arguments
- DCF model gives fair value roughly 850 by December 2025 and 680 today.
- Current stock around 338 implies roughly a 50% discount to fair value.
- Wall Street analysts are constrained to keep targets within 50-100 of current price.
- Gary Black's 1M humanoid TAM is roughly 10x too small; correct number closer to 10M.
- Institutional analysts have career incentives to stay near consensus, not first-principles.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Gary Black sees 200 fair value based on his own DCF.
- 50% chance of short-term lower prices due to market correction risk.
- Host still buys at current levels despite near-term downside risk.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 9, 2025
- Timeframe
- current fair value
- Price at prediction
- $346.97
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $367.81
- Return
- +6.0%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $367.81.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $367.81.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Present-day DCF-derived fair-value estimate.