TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“Artificial general intelligence will happen next year 2025”@ 19:49 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's long-term market cap potential is $50 trillion (~100x current value) driven by three verticals: EV/energy ($3T), FSD ($15T), and humanoid robots ($30T). AI acceleration, compute/data supremacy, and pioneer-led competition make Tesla's dominance highly probable; AGI by 2025 and ASI within 5 years.
Key arguments
- Three verticals: EV/energy $3T, FSD $15T, Optimus robots $30T = $50T total market cap
- Legacy European/American automakers effectively dead - retreating to hybrids
- Tesla has 100-200x more data than Waymo for FSD training
- Tesla is #2 in world in GPU count after Meta
- FSD v12 is end-to-end neural net, no human input, watches Tesla fleet videos
- AGI coming in 2025, ASI within 5 years drives exponential FSD/Optimus curves
- Florida, Nevada, LA, SF, China will approve robotaxis within 6-12 months
- Tesla can deploy Optimus robots in-house to gain data advantage vs startups
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- BYD outsold Tesla in 2023 and competes hard in China
- Wall Street analysts apply linear thinking to exponential FSD progress
- Figure/OpenAI are dangerous startups in robotics
- Demand/regulatory/consumer acceptance concerns
The call
- Date said
- May 10, 2024
- Timeframe
- 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $168.47
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Declarative statement 'will happen'