TSLABearhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$220
“it could be that in 24 months or let's say 18 months from now, we look back and the stock is at 220 where it is now.”@ 11:11 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedShort-to-medium term Tesla will be range-bound due to lack of concrete Robotaxi/FSD/Optimus catalysts, but long-term the 5-year bet is reinforced with a $5,000 price target by 2030 driven by Optimus and FSD dominance.
Key arguments
- Event was fluffy with no hard catalysts for next 6-12 months; Wall Street took stock down over 5%.
- Robotaxi hardware timeline is irrelevant; FSD deployment is the gating factor.
- Optimus is a 20 trillion mid-term, effectively unlimited long-term opportunity.
- Competition (Waymo, Cruz, Figure One) is discounted; Chinese EVs blocked by tariffs.
- OEMs will go out of business or strike deals with Tesla before 2030.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Elon has promised FSD/robotaxi since 2016 and been wrong repeatedly.
- Stock could go nowhere until 2027 with no catalyst.
- Short-term and midterm are frustrating on a stock price level.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 11, 2024
- Timeframe
- 18-24 months from now
- Deadline
- Oct 11, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $217.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $219.16
- Return
- -0.6%
- Notes
- Target ≤$220 reached on 2024-10-14. Price: $219.16. Return: -0.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$220 reached on 2024-10-14. Price: $219.16. Return: -0.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Framed as 'absolutely a possibility' rather than a firm call.