TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“Overall, October 6 will be a good day for Tesla, Tesla shareholders, and the people of EU.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe video argues that mounting hints from EU regulators (France, Germany, Sweden trending toward approval) make it likely Tesla's FSD gets approved in the October 6 EU vote, which the host believes will meaningfully boost FSD take rate and add significant high-margin revenue to Tesla. He also highlights that FSD version 15, already running in the Cybercab/robotaxi fleet, is an imminent upgrade that could bring major safety and capability improvements to consumer vehicles.
Key arguments
- Six EU countries have already approved FSD and large countries like France and Germany are trending toward approval
- EU safety data shows FSD supervised has 4.1x fewer collisions
- FSD take rate increase post-approval would add 'billions' to Tesla's top and bottom line since FSD margins are extremely high
- Version 15, already deployed in the Cybercab/robotaxi fleet, is described as imminent for consumer vehicles with better hazard prediction and reaction time
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- EU approval requires 65% of EU population and 15 of 25 countries to vote in favor, and current confirmed support is about 3% population short and short by 3 countries
- The additional eight countries considered likely to help push approval over the threshold are not guaranteed to vote in favor
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Approval is not guaranteed; requires 15 of 25 EU member votes and 65% population support
- Vote is scheduled for October 6th but could be delayed
- Regulatory approval timelines are uncertain and subject to change
- Video creator has financial incentive (sells Tesla merchandise and promotes stock purchases)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 13, 2026
- Timeframe
- October 6
- Deadline
- Oct 6, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $365.44
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong directional certainty language ('will be a good day') but no specific price target, and some hedging elsewhere about the vote outcome not being fully guaranteed.