LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$20
Said $2· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“abnormally for January 16th 2026 for it to be sub $2 so Lucid does need to like I said get their crap together”@ 4:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid is trading up on Tesla's strong earnings but the speaker notes that Tesla's key catalysts (energy storage beat, concrete future numbers, lower-price vehicle guidance) are not transferable to Lucid. Analysts have raised Q3 revenue estimates to $205M despite Lucid guiding ~$200M, setting them up for a potential miss. Options flow signals sub-$2.00 for January 2026, but the speaker believes Q3 earnings — if Lucid provides concrete Gravity guidance — could be a significant turning point.
Key arguments
- Tesla's catalysts (energy storage, lower price vehicle in Q1 2025, concrete numbers) don't transfer to Lucid
- Analysts raised Q3 revenue estimate to $205.18M vs Lucid's guided $200M high — setting up for miss
- Short interest returning 1.11M shares today, adding buying pressure
- Lucid needs to take a page from Tesla's playbook and give actual numbers for Gravity
- Options show consensus for sub-$2 by January 2026 — bearish big money signal
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid technicals look "absolutely horrific"
- Peter stated they can't forecast Gravity demand — will just produce until demand is met
The call
- Date said
- Oct 24, 2024
- Deadline
- Jan 16, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $25
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $19.80
- Return
- +20.8%
- Notes
- Target ≤$20 reached on 2025-08-29. Price: $19.80. Return: +20.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$20 reached on 2025-08-29. Price: $19.80. Return: +20.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.