The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$20
Said $2· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“abnormally for January 16th 2026 for it to be sub $2 so Lucid does need to like I said get their crap together”@ 4:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Oct 24, 2024
- Extracted deadline
- Jan 16, 2026
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid is trading up on Tesla's strong earnings but the speaker notes that Tesla's key catalysts (energy storage beat, concrete future numbers, lower-price vehicle guidance) are not transferable to Lucid. Analysts have raised Q3 revenue estimates to $205M despite Lucid guiding ~$200M, setting them up for a potential miss. Options flow signals sub-$2.00 for January 2026, but the speaker believes Q3 earnings — if Lucid provides concrete Gravity guidance — could be a significant turning point.
Key arguments
- Tesla's catalysts (energy storage, lower price vehicle in Q1 2025, concrete numbers) don't transfer to Lucid
- Analysts raised Q3 revenue estimate to $205.18M vs Lucid's guided $200M high — setting up for miss
- Short interest returning 1.11M shares today, adding buying pressure
- Lucid needs to take a page from Tesla's playbook and give actual numbers for Gravity
- Options show consensus for sub-$2 by January 2026 — bearish big money signal
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid technicals look "absolutely horrific"
- Peter stated they can't forecast Gravity demand — will just produce until demand is met
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Oct 24, 2024, 7:36 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before20.8
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before25
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-08-29
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$20 reached on 2025-08-29. Price: $19.80. Return: +20.8%.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before19.8
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Jan 16, 2026
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.