ELFBullpending
Michael TylerTarget Range
$130–$139
“I think the stock could run into the 130s here over the next couple of months.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe host sold roughly $50,000 of his highest tax-lot ELF shares today mainly for tax and portfolio-concentration reasons after the stock nearly doubled, but he remains bullish overall and still holds a large position. He thinks the near-term risk/reward has become less attractive at current valuation levels.
Key arguments
- Sold high-cost-basis shares to reduce concentration and manage the one-year tax holding period
- ELF's PEG ratio of 2.5x looks expensive compared to other growth opportunities trading at 0.5-0.6x PEG
- Still holds shares bought in the $40s-$50s and is not bearish on the name
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Risk/reward has changed since the stock doubled from the $40-50 range to around $100
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
- Creator mentions selling $50,000 of stock but does not specify which positions
- Analysis relies on interpretation of Fed policy and geopolitical outcomes
- AI revenue sustainability concerns are forward-looking assumptions
The call
- Date said
- Aug 20, 2026
- Timeframe
- over the next couple of months
- Current price (live)
- $102.12$32.38 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedge words 'I think' and 'could' significantly reduce confidence despite a specific price range and timeframe.
Source
This has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE... (Tesla Stock)
Said on Aug 20, 2026Open on YouTube ↗