LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“people through options are very optimistic about this week so as we can kind of see it is expected for it to be pretty much at the bare minimum at 250 U potentially to as high as the $3 range”@ 3:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker previews the upcoming week: limited earnings catalysts means the market will be data-driven, and he expects a repeat of the early-March scenario where Powell saved sentiment. The March 27 NYC event could prompt new analyst ratings like Adam Jonas's surprise bull case did. Shorts returned 1.56M shares on Friday (unusual), which the speaker reads as a potential signal of upcoming positive news. Options show consensus for a $3+ close during the week, with 19,000 in open interest at $250.
Key arguments
- Shorts returned 1.56M shares on Friday — unusual and historically precedes positive Lucid news within a few trading days
- Options consensus for this week targets $3+ for LCID; 19,000 open interest at $250 could trigger gamma squeeze
- The March 27 event could prompt new analyst ratings like Adam Jonas's unexpected $10 bull case did previously
- Q1 end rebalancing will force institutions to add to underperforming Lucid position
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tariff fears on Friday April 28 could cause significant volatility even if data is good
- Stochastic RSI shows overbought conditions after the recent run
The call
- Date said
- Mar 23, 2025
- Deadline
- Mar 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.70
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $23.20
- Return
- -6.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $23.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $23.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.