LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$35
Said $3.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“based on this the call options are being done there's a consensus for it to be above 350 for this week”@ 5:03 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker notes that 81% of all options by premium are bullish today, with a large multi-leg transaction from a single entity buying $2.50 calls expiring August 15, 2025. The broader market rallied on news that April 2 tariffs would be targeted rather than blanket, but Lucid lagged peers because shorts increased 2.24M shares with negative cost-to-borrow. Call options consensus points to $3.50+ for this week. The speaker views the Caner Fitzgerald neutral $3 rating as potentially suppressive given the setup.
Key arguments
- 81% of options premiums are bullish — particularly large multi-leg transaction buying $2.50 August 2025 calls
- Options consensus shows price targets clustering above $3.50 for the near term
- Targeted tariff approach (vs blanket) triggered a broad market rally; Lucid lagged only due to short manipulation
- Negative cost-to-borrow confirms ongoing short manipulation — brokers paying people to short LCID
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid underperformed Rivian (+4.83%) and Tesla (+9.45%) on the day despite the broad rally
The call
- Date said
- Mar 24, 2025
- Deadline
- Mar 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.70
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $23.20
- Return
- -6.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $23.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $23.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.