TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$10,000
“we end up at 10,000 share price in 2030.”@ 6:35 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishInstitutional adoption is breaking down Wall Street resistance and will smooth Tesla's path to a ~$10,000 share price by 2030, with a 2025 rational fair value near $600 that is likely to be exceeded significantly.
Key arguments
- Major analysts (Adam Jonas, Deutsche Bank, Dan Ives) now pricing Optimus and FSD into Tesla targets.
- Price discovery shifts from staircase jumps to continuous ~80-100% CAGR toward 2030.
- Three waves of Optimus repricing: manufacturing, all industries, then geostrategic 'must-have'.
- FSD unlock will similarly run in two waves as governments accelerate approvals.
- 2025 rational fair value ~$600 but likely overshot due to momentum.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Wall Street still lacks sophisticated risk-discount models, so reactions may stay emotional.
- Overshoots likely to retrace.
- Elon haters will remain regardless of Tesla success.
The call
- Date said
- Dec 11, 2024
- Timeframe
- 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $424.77
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$9,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as his modeled 2030 landing point, reiterated throughout the video.