LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$17.40
Said $1.74· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“going into this upcoming week it does have a pivot point of 257 so for as long as it is below that then it is anticipated to get to that 167 to 181 range”@ 7:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishWith the broader market in FOMO mode but Lucid stuck at 52-week lows, Elliott Wave analysis projects a move to $1.67-$1.81. The CEO repeatedly avoids tough analyst questions and frames the stock as a 'long-term play' — a pattern the speaker associates with continued downside. Post-earnings analyst ratings came in subpar despite operational improvements.
Key arguments
- Elliott Wave pivot at $2.57 — below this level targets $1.67-$1.81 range
- CEO failed to guide on Gravity ramp or Air production targets for 2025
- Analysts frustrated with Peter's non-answers; Tobias grilled on cost savings timeline
- 20.64% of float shorted; shorts returned 2.91M shares on Friday to reload ammunition
- Post-earnings analyst ratings: BofA $3.40, Stifel $4, Cantor Fitzgerald $3, RBC $3
- Lucid compared to a child's lemonade stand — no demand forecasting capability
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market in full FOMO mode — risk appetite could trickle to Lucid
- Strong buy signals from some analysts (Stifel $4)
The call
- Date said
- Nov 11, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $23.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $27.70
- Return
- -18.4%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $17.4. Price: $27.70.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $17.4. Price: $27.70.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.