PLTR bullish call by Tom Nash

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“Palanteer has a simple path to 1 trillion. It's not that complicated.”

Thesis at the time

Strongly Bullish

Tom Nash argues Palantir's latest earnings (93% revenue growth, expanding commercial and government deals, rule of 40 at 155) show the company's true potential is even bigger than his long-standing $1 trillion market cap thesis. He believes the stock, despite a 'expensive' valuation on trading and forward PE, remains undervalued relative to its growth trajectory and that hitting $1 trillion is actually a conservative outcome if growth doesn't decelerate.

Key arguments

Revenue grew 93% to $1.94B with adjusted EPS of $0.41 beating estimates by 17%.
US commercial revenue up 150% and US government revenue up 90%, both accelerating.
Rule of 40 score of 155 and operating margin of 62% are exceptional.
Reverse-engineering the $1T market cap shows it requires revenue growth deceleration, not acceleration, making the thesis conservative.
High switching costs create a 'Hotel California' dynamic where customers rarely leave once onboarded.

Counter-arguments acknowledged

Trading PE of 138 and forward PE of 77 with a PEG of 1.5 make the stock expensive.
Key-man risk around CEO Alex Karp is significant.
Commercial or government growth could slow down, undermining the bull case.
The stock is highly volatile and will not move up in a straight line.

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice
Explicitly warns against buying on FOMO or pure excitement
Acknowledges stock is expensive with trading PE of 138 and forward PE of 77
Cautions that 'there's way more chaos ahead than you think'
Emphasizes need for long-term conviction and patience before investing
Warns stock is down year-to-date and 6 months despite strong fundamentals
Advises building a thesis rather than buying based on recent performance