Tom Nash

Tom Nash argues Palantir's latest earnings (93% revenue growth, expanding commercial and government deals, rule of 40 at 155) show the company's true potential is even bigger than his long-standing $1 trillion market cap thesis. He believes the stock, despite a 'expensive' valuation on trading and forward PE, remains undervalued relative to its growth trajectory and that hitting $1 trillion is actually a conservative outcome if growth doesn't decelerate.

Tom Nash believes Palantir is priced for perfection but may deserve it given its exceptional financial profile, including 145 Rule of 40, 150% net retention, zero debt, and $8 billion cash. He sees its government contracts and institutional integration as a nearly unbreakable moat.

Palantir was identified years ago ahead of the curve and serves as a prime example of successful long-term investing. The stock was recommended at $6 and represents the type of opportunity that creates generational wealth when bought during periods of extreme fear.

Tom Nash argues that Palantir's recent 26% decline over 6 months is a buying opportunity driven by market sentiment and Michael Burry's bearish thesis, not fundamental deterioration. He presents extensive financial data showing 56% revenue growth, 191% operating margin growth, $2B free cash flow, and a 98/100 scorecard rating on his platform.

Palantir represents 30% of Tom's portfolio and has delivered 1,500% returns since its 2020 DPO at $10. Despite current 11.5% decline, he views this as a buying opportunity since the drop is market-related, not company-specific.

Palantir was a successful undervalued investment that generated thousands of percent returns from $6 in January 2023. Used as an example of finding great businesses that are mispriced by the market.

Tom argues that despite the S&P 500 being near all-time highs, objective data (forward P/E of 20, in line with the 10-year average; current bull run of 100% over 4 years vs. historical average of 265% over 5.5 years; broad earnings growth across 10 of 11 sectors) shows the market is not in a euphoric, bubble stage. He concludes the index is fairly priced and the rally has room to continue, especially if the Fed begins cutting rates.

The current war-driven volatility creates a generational wealth opportunity, with the S&P 500 at attractive valuations (20 forward PE) that historically deliver 10% annual returns over 10 years. Wars and geopolitical crises consistently create temporary dips followed by strong recoveries, making this an optimal buying opportunity for long-term investors.

The S&P 500 provides consistent long-term returns averaging 10% annually, with 95% of decades being positive. Tom advocates for a 40% allocation to the S&P 500 as the foundation of a portfolio, emphasizing that drawdowns are temporary and part of normal market cycles.

SPY FWD PE at 20 is right on the 5-year and 10-year averages. Historical data says at this PE bucket, average annual returns over the next 3 years are 5-15% — not bottom-territory (that would be PE 11-13) and not bubble-territory (that would be PE 24+). Extreme-fear sentiment reading creates opportunity in beaten-down names even though the index itself isn't obviously mispriced.

The S&P 500 is used as a benchmark, showing 80% returns over 5 years and 17% over the past year. Tesla has underperformed this benchmark despite strong fundamentals.

Tom briefly cites Bloom Energy's 200% rise as an example of stocks currently flying up in the market, without providing further analysis or a forward-looking thesis on the stock itself.

Tom Nash describes Bloom Energy as a volatile but promising play on on-site power generation for data centers that don't need grid connection. He notes it can swing significantly in either direction on any given day, reflecting high uncertainty despite overall bullish framing of the energy bottleneck thesis.

Bloom Energy was recommended just a few months ago and has shown strong performance in the past six months. This recent success demonstrates continued ability to identify profitable opportunities.

Nash notes Nvidia has already captured much of the AI/agentic upside, calling it a '15x' move already priced in, and argues AMD will take a share of Nvidia's supply chain rather than compete head-on.

Tom Nash argues Nvidia's infrastructure layer (CUDA, hardware) has a durable moat unlike commoditized LLM models, evidenced by 75% hardware gross margins and massive developer lock-in. He believes Nvidia is undervalued given its growth rate and PEG ratio, making it cheap despite being one of the best companies in the world.

Nvidia exemplifies how great businesses that are mispriced can generate massive returns regardless of high valuation metrics. Generated 1000% returns from January 2023 despite being a half-trillion dollar company.

Tesla represents 30% of Tom's portfolio and has delivered 1,400% returns since 2019, rising from $24 to $360. Despite current 17% decline, he views drawdowns as buying opportunities for this quality business.

Tesla is one of the seven 'oversold elite companies at a discount' at -21% YTD. Framed as a buy opportunity on DCA dips — 'the leader in robotics and AI'. Not a call to go all-in; stay selective, slow, and keep dry powder for a potential further drawdown.

Tesla is a great business that is fundamentally strong but mispriced by the market, positioned to dominate three massive secular trends: robotics, autonomous driving/robotaxi, and energy storage. The company will transition from being primarily an auto company to a monopoly in robotics, FSD, and energy by 2030.

Tom compares the current AI-driven Nasdaq rally (150% since ChatGPT's 2022 debut) to the dot-com internet cycle (600% Nasdaq gain in the four years following Netscape's 1994 launch), arguing the AI cycle is nowhere near the euphoria level of the dot-com boom. He suggests this implies more room for the Nasdaq/AI rally to run before hitting a euphoric peak.

The NASDAQ is currently down 6% in the market selloff, representing the tech-heavy nature of the index. Tom acknowledges the volatility but doesn't make specific predictions about its direction.

Tom Nash briefly cites CrowdStrike's record ARR growth as evidence that leading AI-adjacent infrastructure companies are reporting their strongest quarters despite bearish sentiment in the market. No detailed thesis or prediction is given beyond this data point.

CrowdStrike represents a successful past call that validates the speaker's stock-picking ability. The company was recommended two years ago and has delivered strong performance since then.

Nash views Microsoft's 31% drop from highs as a major buying opportunity, citing a $600 billion contracted backlog (up 97%) and consistently improving margins and profits despite lagging the S&P 500. He projects Microsoft will reach $924 per share by 2030, a 142% upside from current levels.

Microsoft is described as undoubtedly one of the best businesses in the world, but used as an example of how even great companies without mispricing provide more modest returns compared to undervalued opportunities.

Tom briefly cites MicroStrategy's 200% rise as another example of stocks currently flying up in the market, without providing further analysis or a forward-looking thesis on the stock itself.

Tom Nash argues AMD is the most misunderstood beneficiary of the coming agentic AI and robotics wave, since rising CPU-to-GPU ratios will drive a surge in CPU demand that isn't priced in yet. He cites cheap valuation, strong growth metrics, and a top-tier CEO as reasons to build a position via dollar-cost averaging over the next year.

Nash briefly mentions ARM as one of three CPU-market players worth watching, noting it's down about 40% from June highs, but says he prefers AMD over it.

Nash mentions Intel as one of the three main CPU players alongside ARM and AMD, noting a heavy pullback from June highs, but states his preference is AMD.

Tom Nash views Constellation Energy as a key beneficiary of the AI power bottleneck, citing nuclear energy as essential for powering data centers going forward. He considers the position 'still early' despite already being up since he added it to his list.

Tom Nash argues that cooling technology will be critical to solving AI's power/infrastructure bottleneck and names Vertiv as the top pick in this space. The stock is up 111% since he added it to his list in June of last year.

Nash calls Amazon the 'largest landlord on the planet' with the biggest bull case of the three mega-caps he covers, citing accelerating growth, doubling/quadrupling financials over five years, and vertical integration into training chips. He projects 144% upside to $567 per share by 2030 based on his profit and multiple assumptions.

Tom Nash argues Google is a dominant 'landlord' of the AI industry via cloud infrastructure, and that its 22% drop from 52-week highs is a buying opportunity given accelerating cloud growth and margin expansion from in-house TPUs. He models an 80% upside to $560 per share by 2030 even using conservative growth assumptions.

Arista Networks was another successful recommendation made two years ago that has performed well. This serves as evidence of the speaker's track record in identifying winning stocks.