LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$35
Said $3.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I don't see realistically $4 being hit because of that solely I think you'll have another retest of roughly around that 350 to 360”@ 6:40 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker expects Lucid to move higher this week, contingent on favorable CPI data, noting strong options open interest pointing to a gamma squeeze. Faisal Sultan's upcoming speech at the Future Minerals Forum on Jan 14-16 is seen as a bullish catalyst. The speaker sets $3.50 as a realistic near-term target, with $4 achievable only on very strong CPI.
Key arguments
- Massive open interest in call options (45,000 at $2.50, 38,000 at $3.00, 33,000 at $3.50) could force market makers to cover, creating gamma squeeze conditions
- Lucid held its 100/200-day moving average support through recent market selloffs
- Faisal Sultan speech at Future Minerals Forum could highlight Saudi Vision 2030 and Lucid's role in it
- Montreal Auto Show preparation provides additional positive visibility
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- CPI data on Wednesday is the key wildcard — a bad print could derail the rally
- Speaker acknowledges $4 is unlikely from this week alone
The call
- Date said
- Jan 12, 2025
- Deadline
- Jan 17, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $30.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.70
- Return
- +2.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 12% progress toward target $35. Price: $30.70.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 12% progress toward target $35. Price: $30.70.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.