LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$9.50
“I do believe that Lucid will be hitting kind of the mid-9s. Might not be this week, but over the next two weeks on which it might kind of bounce. And so I think in the short term 950 might be that kind of good entry point.”
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid heads into the week at all-time high short interest of 36.15% with the stock below all pivotal moving averages. The speaker expects further near-term downside into the mid-$9s, where a potential swing entry may form ahead of FOMO going into earnings. Institutions are not buying, and Lucid needs to release substantive news to stop the bleed.
Key arguments
- Record short interest at 36.15% of free float entering the week
- Stock below all key moving averages (10, 50, 100, 200-day) since October 15
- EU tariff fears and Greenland geopolitical risk creating broad sell pressure
- No planned news or events from Lucid beyond DC Auto Show
- Bears anticipating sub-$10 close which could trigger psychological breakdown
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- DTC at 5.81 days signals shorts are overextended — potential squeeze catalyst
- Mark mentioned something big coming for investor day and earnings
The call
- Date said
- Jan 18, 2026
- Deadline
- Feb 1, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.73
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $10.29
- Return
- -5.8%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $9.5. Price: $10.29.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $9.5. Price: $10.29.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.