LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$7
“Bears though, they are anticipating for it to be sub $9. And oddly enough, most likely this is just some hedging. Um but $7 uh anticipated next week.”@ 4:20 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe Q1 delivery number of 3,093 is below Wall Street expectations and implies ~9,800 units of excess inventory, which signals a demand problem. Big money is selling with all three secondary market transactions being sells. The stock is becoming a 'forgotten stock' which historically leads to shorts magnifying their presence.
Key arguments
- Q1 deliveries of 3,093 below expectations, creating ~9,800 units excess inventory
- All three secondary market transactions above $100K were institutional sells
- LCID below 10, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages
- Bears targeting $7 next week; bulls only see $10-$10.50
- Stock becoming 'forgotten' — historically shorts magnify presence when retail loses interest
- Cantor Fitzgerald's $14 PT is from a B-level firm; Wall Street doesn't care
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Consensus analyst price target of $13.38 represents 41.96% upside
- Shorts returning 272K shares (covering) suggests macro-driven sell-off not short attack
The call
- Date said
- Apr 6, 2026
- Deadline
- Apr 12, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.33
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $9.24
- Return
- +1.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 4% progress toward target $7. Price: $9.24.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 4% progress toward target $7. Price: $9.24.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.