The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price
$17
Quoted text as recorded“I did kind of forecast it for it to be between that 1650 to 1750 range general”@ 6:21 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Oct 27, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
On a day when the broader market rallied on China trade optimism, Lucid went red as institutions sold $6.66M net on $76.5M total turnover. The speaker calls this a 'slap in the face' and blames management for destroying investor trust over years of broken promises. Every time Lucid breaks below the 50-day MA for two consecutive days it falls 20–30%, putting $16.50–$17.50 as the target range.
Key arguments
- Lucid went red on a green macro day — institutions net sold $6.66M on $76.5M turnover
- Breaking below 50-day MA for 2nd consecutive day historically triggers 20–30% decline to $16.50–$17.50
- Reverse stock split brought zero institutional buying — thesis refuted conclusively
- Management trust is so damaged that any pullback triggers panic selling
- Speaker believes Mark Winterhoff being fired would cause the stock to go higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning 346K shares today — suggests the red day is not shorts' doing
- Product quality remains excellent — it is purely an execution/management problem
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Oct 27, 2025, 5:42 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 28, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-18.1
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 5 shown
Oct 28, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Evaluation kind
BeforeNot recorded
Aftertouch
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.5
After2026-10-18.1
- Recorded outcome date
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-28
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome reason
BeforeAwaiting stated deadline
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforepending
Afterexpired
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before8.07
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before18.1
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-11-03
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$17 reached on 2025-11-03. Price: $16.64. Return: +8.1%.
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome price
Before16.64
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterpending
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 6 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $17
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 28, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.