LCIDBearunverifiable
Lucid City“every time it's broken below that on average it goes down roughly around 25% so something to definitely keep in mind”@ 7:36 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedNASDAQ's official disclosure reveals 53M short shares were returned between Dec 13 and Dec 31 (dropping from 265.7M to 212.5M), which did drive the Dec 13-31 rally from $2.58 to $3.02 — but disappointingly no short squeeze materialized. Shorts have since re-added aggressively in January, and the stock is now trading below both 100 and 200-day MAs with the super trend and 50-day MA at $2.62 as the last defense. Q4 earnings on February 25 with -$0.27 EPS consensus and $206M revenue estimate is the critical upcoming catalyst. The speaker emphasizes asking management quality questions about 2025 production targets and Gravity guidance rather than profitability.
Key arguments
- 53M short shares returned Dec 13-31 explains rally but failed to trigger squeeze — disappointing
- Stock broke below 100 and 200-day MAs — only super trend ($2.62) and 50-day MA remain as support
- Historical pattern: 50-day MA break leads to ~25% decline (consistent across multiple episodes since 2021)
- Q4 earnings catalyst: market wants 2025 production guidance and Gravity mix targets, not EPS details
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Big money buying the dip per secondary market data — fundamental buyers still present
- Stock very oversold — kickass earnings could reverse the technical breakdown quickly
The call
- Date said
- Jan 13, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $30.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.