WTF - Lucid Shorts RETURNED 53.18M | Lucid Technicals Starting to BREAK ⚠️ LCID Stock Analysis
Overall Thesis
Shorts returning 53M shares in December (NASDAQ disclosure) explains the December rally but disappoints the speaker since it failed to trigger a squeeze, while the stock is now breaking below key technicals and needs strong Q4 earnings to reverse the bearish technical setup.
Narratives
NASDAQ's official disclosure reveals 53M short shares were returned between Dec 13 and Dec 31 (dropping from 265.7M to 212.5M), which did drive the Dec 13-31 rally from $2.58 to $3.02 — but disappointingly no short squeeze materialized. Shorts have since re-added aggressively in January, and the stock is now trading below both 100 and 200-day MAs with the super trend and 50-day MA at $2.62 as the last defense. Q4 earnings on February 25 with -$0.27 EPS consensus and $206M revenue estimate is the critical upcoming catalyst. The speaker emphasizes asking management quality questions about 2025 production targets and Gravity guidance rather than profitability.
Key Arguments
- 53M short shares returned Dec 13-31 explains rally but failed to trigger squeeze — disappointing
- Stock broke below 100 and 200-day MAs — only super trend ($2.62) and 50-day MA remain as support
- Historical pattern: 50-day MA break leads to ~25% decline (consistent across multiple episodes since 2021)
- Q4 earnings catalyst: market wants 2025 production guidance and Gravity mix targets, not EPS details