TSLABearpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$100
“If the market crashes it goes to 100.”
Thesis at the time
MixedJoe believes Tesla and SpaceX will largely be spared from the market fallout he expects once AI-doom fears about ASI regulation intensify by 2029, but he acknowledges Tesla could fall sharply to $140 or even $100 in adverse scenarios like a broad market crash. He frames these downside numbers explicitly as conditional 'ifs' rather than his base case.
Key arguments
- He predicts 2029 policy measures targeting frontier AI will not harm Tesla or SpaceX.
- He does not expect a Robotaxi fatal crash or rate hikes to hit Tesla in the near term.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A broader market crash could still drag Tesla down regardless of company-specific factors.
- If everything goes wrong for Tesla specifically, he floats a much lower price.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges this is macro-level discussion, not tactical trading advice
- Host notes audience may find existential AI risk discussion less exciting than immediate trading opportunities
- Concerns presented are based on whistleblower claims, not definitive evidence
- Host frames this as a conversation to explore implications rather than making definitive claims
The call
- Date said
- Sep 10, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $363.56
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$278.90 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on a broad market crash scenario, explicitly flagged by the speaker as hypothetical.
Source
How DOOMERS Will CHANGE SpaceX and AGI
Said on Sep 10, 2026Open on YouTube ↗