The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$10
Said $1· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“as a be case so my bear case is very similar to Polar Opposites based on this and analysts are honestly the exact same mentality it Loose it could go many many different directions and so in my opinion I think just given the lack of 2025 targets what Lucid most likely will do and just lack of catalyst I think $1 is realistic”@ 7:11 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Nov 28, 2024
- Extracted deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
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Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The speaker's 2025 year-end prediction is bimodal: either $5-6 (bull case, if Gravity ramps to 22K+, a DOE loan alleviates dilution, and possible partnerships materialize) or $1 (bear case, if production targets disappoint and further dilution accelerates). There is no expected middle ground at $2.50-$4. Analyst consensus for 2025 production is ~22K vehicles implying $1.74B revenue, but real outcome could be 12-30K range.
Key arguments
- Bull case: $5-$6 year-end 2025 on ~22K deliveries, Gravity demand, DOE loan, and potential partnership revenue
- DOE loan (like Rivian's $6.6B) would significantly reduce dilution pressure if Lucid applied
- Gravity is the primary 2025 catalyst; lower-priced second variant expected late 2025 could also be bullish
- European expansion and UAE market deepening should support demand trajectory
- Analyst consensus is 22K production; speaker thinks 12-15K more realistic near-term
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bear case: $1 if production disappoints, dilution continues, and NASDAQ deficiency triggers reverse split
- Management has been 100% wrong on every future financial forecast
- Cash burn of ~$1.4B expected in 2025 requires ongoing dilution or DOE loan
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Nov 28, 2024, 3:30 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before51.51
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before21.8
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-12-31
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Moved 95% toward target $10. Price: $10.57.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before10.57
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforepartial
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Dec 31, 2025
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.