TSLABullunverifiable
Randy Kirk“I think that by the end of this year, it'll be, you know, it'll be a done deal.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe hosts believe Tesla is currently undervalued and see multiple upcoming catalysts—the Semi truck event, an anticipated Optimus event, strong Q3 delivery numbers, and SpaceX's Starship-driven data center opportunity—as reasons the stock could move higher. They also discuss a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger of equals, arguing Elon Musk will ultimately decide relative valuations and that current prices for both companies are roughly fair.
Key arguments
- Tesla is currently undervalued relative to its opportunities
- Upcoming catalysts: Semi event, Optimus event, robotaxi expansion
- Strong Q3 delivery trends (low inventory, high demand) support the stock
- SpaceX's data center/Starship economics could indirectly benefit Tesla shareholders given merger speculation
- Elon Musk controls both boards and will ultimately drive the SpaceX-Tesla merger valuation decision
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Retail investors have reportedly been moving out of Tesla stock recently
- Market may not be crediting Tesla/SpaceX with future gigawatt-scale data center revenue potential
- Uncertainty and nervousness among investors about how a SpaceX-Tesla merger would be structured
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Discussion relies on third-party analyst calculations (Bank of America, Wood McKenzie, Futurum, BNP Paribas) with varying cost estimates
- Comparisons to Starlink success are historical analogies, not guarantees of future performance
- SpaceX is a private company; direct investment exposure is through Tesla stock
- Cost projections depend on achieving rapid reusability milestones not yet fully demonstrated
- Video contains promotional links to options course and Rebellionaire services
The call
- Date said
- Sep 18, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $366.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker expresses conviction that the market will recognize the gigawatt/data-center opportunity by year end, though the statement is somewhat vague on mechanism.
Source
The Facts Are Stubborn Things; Undervalued!!
Said on Sep 18, 2026Open on YouTube ↗