LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$25
“if you feel it's going to be $25 by throwing out August, August 2026, you'd make 44% on the actual stock price”@ 7:45 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedHedge funds bought Lucid early in the session but the broader market dragged it to -3.9%. Shutdown optimism is causing a recovery into the close. Short interest at 32.07% is near the all-time high of 33.15% and DTC at 4.17 signals shorts are overextended. The speaker sees Lucid as purely at the mercy of macro conditions with no company-specific catalyst until a possible rate cut or shutdown resolution.
Key arguments
- Short interest at 32.07% of float — near all-time high of 33.15%
- Big money was buying in the morning session but algorithmic trading overwhelmed it
- Shutdown resolution could be the key macro catalyst for a near-term recovery
- No new analyst ratings expected yet; Morgan Stanley, Leerink, CFRA, RBC still outstanding
- Options bulls see $18 by end of next week; bears see sub-$15
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- DTC at 4.17 signals shorts are very overextended, potential squeeze territory
- Historically when Lucid breaks below 50-day MA it triggers 30–35% decline — suggesting near-term bottom
The call
- Date said
- Nov 7, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $17.28
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $5.01
- Return
- -71.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25. Price: $5.01.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25. Price: $5.01.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.