LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“at this rate LUSD is going to far exceed their original 9,000 Target and honestly Lucid has been reiterating that time and time again so kind of looking back Lucid did kind of lower the expectations so most likely it'll be roughly around that 10,000 or above at this rate”@ 1:52 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid's Q3 deliveries of 2,781 vehicles were described as 'amazing' and well above consensus expectations, with inventory nearly depleted suggesting genuine demand. The speaker views this as Lucid saying 'F you to the Bears' and expects Q4 to be even stronger. European expansion via a new French subsidiary and upcoming Gravity SUV launch add additional catalysts.
Key arguments
- Q3 deliveries of 2,781 far exceeded expectations, signaling real demand
- Inventory almost depleted (less than 1,000 vehicles), to be cleared by Q4
- Lucid fulfilling part of the 50,000-vehicle Saudi order
- On track to surpass original 9,000-unit annual target, likely hitting ~10,000
- Lucid France subsidiary active, signaling European westward expansion
- Q4 is historically Lucid's best quarter, and Gravity SUV not yet counted
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Production of 1,850 slightly below consensus estimates
- Broader market was down on FOMC/CPI fears, limiting stock reaction
The call
- Date said
- Oct 7, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $34.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.