ORCLBullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“And if you actually look at the valuation of this company, it's dirt cheap.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin views Oracle's recent earnings as a reality check on data-center pricing, showing long-term contracts settle closer to $13-15B per gigawatt rather than the scarcity pricing implied by SpaceX's deal. He believes Oracle has cleaned up its balance sheet, is cutting costs where unprofitable, and is trading cheaply relative to its growth, though its fate is tied to OpenAI's ability to pay its contract.
Key arguments
- Revenue grew 62% year-over-year to $11.6 billion
- Balance sheet improved with cash growing to $36.3 billion and debt being repaid
- Trading at about 20x earnings against a 30% forecast growth rate, a 0.65 PEG ratio which he calls 'dirt cheap'
- Long-term contract pricing of $13-15B per gigawatt implies a reasonable 3-4 year payback period on data centers
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Costs of revenue are growing faster (77%) than revenue itself (62%)
- A bet on Oracle is effectively a bet that OpenAI can pay its bills, and OpenAI is a money-losing startup
- Oracle will need to take on more debt to finance the OpenAI buildout
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges the deal is positive for hardware providers like Nvidia
- Recognizes Oracle deal is a 'risky gamble' per Wall Street Journal reporting
- Notes OpenAI is a money-losing startup
- Distinguishes between short-term premium pricing deals and long-term market rate comparables
- Expresses concern about analyst underwriting assumptions rather than making definitive predictions
The call
- Date said
- Sep 10, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $152.94
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear positive conviction on valuation with supporting data (PEG ratio), but no specific price target or timeframe given.