TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I'm thinking around 1.6 million active FSD subscriptions, which will be a growth of 45.45%.”@ 8:31 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishWhile Q1 2026 earnings will be disappointing, the key metric that matters more is FSD active subscription growth, which shows strong momentum and represents a path to massive recurring revenue. The speaker expects FSD subscriptions to grow from 1.1 million to 1.6 million by end of 2026, generating nearly half a billion in revenue with 80% profit margins.
Key arguments
- FSD active subscriptions are more important than quarterly earnings
- Expected growth from 1.1M to 1.2-1.25M FSD subscriptions in Q1 2026
- Subscription revenue has 80% profit margins and creates exponential growth potential
- EPS showing first increase in six quarters on annual basis
- Robotaxi deployment will drive future profits
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Q1 earnings will be disappointing with operating margin of only 1.5%
- Growth depends on FSD approval in China and Europe
- Stock trading based on macro factors and geopolitical risks
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Q1 earnings expected to be weak and miss non-GAAP EPS estimates
- Energy business is 'lumpy' with Q1 being particularly weak
- Operating margin described as 'absolutely sad' at 1.5%
- Profitability improvement dependent on future FSD and robotaxi deployment (Q4 2026 or Q2 2027 timeline)
- Estimates are author's own projections, not official guidance
- Historical pattern of missing quarterly earnings for past two years acknowledged
The call
- Date said
- Apr 21, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $392.50
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker uses confident language 'I'm pretty confident that we'll hit 1.6 million' and provides detailed analysis