LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$35
Said $3.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“for next week which would encumber their earnings roughly around 350”@ 5:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishVideo covers the emerging Lucid-Blacklane partnership for luxury ride services in Saudi Arabia, which the speaker expects will lead to a significant vehicle order potentially announced around the May 6 earnings. Auto-tariff relief for US-manufactured vehicles with high domestic content further favors Lucid. Shorts returning 1.88M shares and Lucid trading above the 50-day MA are positive technical signals.
Key arguments
- Lucid-Blacklane signing video was published, strongly implying an imminent formal partnership announcement
- Speaker speculates Blacklane could order 2,000+ Lucid vehicles
- Auto-tariff rules (85% domestic content) effectively exempt Lucid, giving it an edge over most rivals
- AMP 2 factory insulates Lucid from international tariff exposure better than AMP 1
- Shorts returning 1.88M shares on a down day is a contrarian bullish signal
- Lucid trading above 50-day MA ($242) with earnings next week as a catalyst
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Temporary supply-chain issue still affecting Gravity deliveries
- Consumer confidence and job-openings data came in weak, weighing on the broader market
The call
- Date said
- Apr 29, 2025
- Deadline
- May 9, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25.60
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.10
- Return
- -1.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $25.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $25.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.