LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$40
Said $4· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I feel uh that it will actually be able to push it to around that $4 range uh at the very least again uh depending on the data if the data is negative then yeah you could see a full breakdown below that 50-day moving average”@ 9:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker is generally optimistic for the upcoming week, expecting macro data (unemployment, CPI, PPI) to confirm rate cuts and potentially trigger a large rotation from money markets ($6.42T) into equities. He expects Q3 numbers in early October, predicts a Gravity reveal around October 21-25, and believes if data is positive LCID could reach the $4 range. He identifies October as historically significant for Lucid product launches.
Key arguments
- 53.3% likelihood of 50 basis point cut at November meeting, positive for growth stocks
- $6.42 trillion in money markets ready for rotation into equities
- Gravity reveal expected week of October 21-25 based on historical October pattern
- Q3 numbers expected early October with ~2,100 deliveries anticipated as bullish
- Stocks at 20%+ run historically when LCID breaks above 50-day MA
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts at 30.9% free float are very active and could suppress gains
- Analysts have given 6 negative earnings revisions in past 90 days
The call
- Date said
- Sep 29, 2024
- Deadline
- Oct 4, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $35.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $33.40
- Return
- -5.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $33.40.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $33.40.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.