TSLABearpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Range
$340–$345
“It I don't think from here we can drop too much. That mean still means 340 if you get unlucky 345.”
Thesis at the time
MixedJoe is tactically cautious in the very short term due to Fed rate-hike risk and the uncertainty of the Thursday Cybercab robotaxi launch, having recently taken profits and only partially re-entered. However, he remains extremely bullish long-term, citing VIN-number evidence of 2,000+ deployed Cybercabs and a belief that the market underestimates the robotaxi/Optimus rollout.
Key arguments
- Tesla has begun deploying dozens of driverless Cybercabs in Austin, which he views as a bullish signal
- VIN number data suggests over 2,000 Cybercabs already exist, more than the market realizes
- The main scheduled macro risk (Fed governor speech) has passed and the market absorbed it without crashing
- He believes a rapid, large-scale Cybercab rollout on day one would be operationally reckless, so he expects a slow initial ramp
- Long-term, he sees robotaxi as the near-term 'cash flow winner' and Optimus as the next major value driver
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Risk of a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction after the launch event
- Market may not appreciate a small initial fleet size (e.g., only 20 vehicles) and could sell off anyway
- Fed meeting in mid-September remains a scheduled macro risk
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator acknowledges taking profits and deleveraging due to concerns about market setup
- Uncertainty about whether Cybercab launch will surprise to the upside
- Mentions previous launch disappointment that hurt the stock
- References September as statistically volatile month
- Fed meeting uncertainty in mid-September creates near-term risk
- Creator states 'bigger fears did not be' (transcript cuts off, suggesting unresolved concerns)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 1, 2026
- Timeframe
- into Thursday's Cybercab launch
- Price at prediction
- $348.75
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$36.40 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Framed with hedges ('I don't think', 'if you get unlucky'), indicating low conviction on the downside scenario.