LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$21.19
“realistically $2119 is going to be the next round target/resistance. So potentially we could see a nice push higher to that $21 range”@ 7:52 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker is cautiously constructive for the week given macro tailwinds — 91.1% probability of a rate cut, potential China trade deal, mega-cap earnings — but explicitly says any Lucid rally will be artificial and algo-driven, not sustained by institutional buying. Short interest at 29.35% of float is near April 2025 lows — a mildly positive sign. The speaker targets $21.19 as the key resistance level.
Key arguments
- Macro week: 25bp rate cut expected, Trump-China meeting Oct 31, mega-cap earnings all week
- 91.1% probability of December rate cut — significant risk-on environment
- 29.35% short float is near April lows — a relative positive
- Target resistance at $21.19; bears target sub-$17
- Lucid's prior rallies (September, October) were entirely algo-driven and unsustained
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Canada tariff risk (additional 10%) could weigh on market sentiment
- Reverse stock split was the worst mistake Lucid ever made — still weighing on stock
The call
- Date said
- Oct 26, 2025
- Deadline
- Nov 1, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $18.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $17.75
- Return
- -1.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $21.19. Price: $17.75.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $21.19. Price: $17.75.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.