LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$26.10
Said $2.61· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I think in my opinion this week it might be uh not breaking below this 261 but it might kind of get pulled down uh close to that”@ 8:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker previews a busy week where Lucid retail Q4 earnings questions open February 11. Multiple major macro data points (CPI, PPI, PCE, Fed speakers) will drive volatility. Shorts have been returning for four consecutive days, and options are targeting the $3 range for the week. The speaker expects some consolidation and possibly a test of the $2.61 support before the February 25 earnings which remain the critical catalyst.
Key arguments
- Q4 retail earnings questions open February 11 — day one questions get asked almost 100% of the time
- Four consecutive days of short returns is unusual — possibly anticipating positive news
- Multiple macro data points (CPI, PPI, PCE) will drive broader volatility
- Gravity flyovers showing no Gravity vehicles in production — a negative near-term signal
- Future guidance remains the make-or-break factor
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid missing short-term Gravity production catalysts
- Speaker personally expects some consolidation this week toward $2.61 support
The call
- Date said
- Feb 10, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 14, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.70
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $33.10
- Return
- -19.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $26.1. Price: $33.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $26.1. Price: $33.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.